自問自答的威爾森 Wilson

The news and picture are from BBC website <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44765760>.

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How the US is waging its trade war with China

美國如何與中國發生(wage v.發動)貿易戰

By Andrew Walker

BBC World Service economics correspondent

BBC世界服務經濟學記者

12 July 2018

After US tariffs on $34bn (£25.7bn) of Chinese goods came into effect last week, China is very much in President Trump's firing line.

在上周美國對中國商品的340億美元（257億英鎊）關稅生效後，中國(已大大的陷入?)川普總統的火線(貿易戰線?)上。

More is coming: details of another $16bn worth are already in the pipeline and President Trump has ordered the administration to prepare to collect tariffs on £200bn of Chinese trade on top of that.

即將到來更多的是：另外的160億美元(關稅)細節已經在籌備中，且川普總統已對政府下令準備收取2000億英鎊的中國貿易關稅。

China's trade policy is unfair, he argues, and it steals the technology of American businesses.

他認為，中國的貿易政策是不公平的，它竊取了美國企業的技術。

Trump's position is shared by his trade adviser Peter Navarro, who co-wrote a book, Death by China, which was also made into a documentary film.

川普的立場由他的貿易顧問 "彼得納瓦羅 Peter Navarro" 分享(傳達出來)，他共同撰寫了一本書“死亡中國”，該書也被製作成紀錄片。

Mr. Navarro warns of the threat he thinks that China poses to US interests.

Peter Navarro 先生警告，他認為中國對美國的利益構成了威脅。

The bare figures of China's rise as a trade power are certainly striking.

中國作為貿易大國崛起的裸體數字肯定是驚人的。

The country exports almost seven times as much as it did at the start of the 21st Century.

該國的出口量幾乎是21世紀初的七倍。

It is the world's biggest exporter of goods, worth more than $2tn a year.

它是世界上最大的商品出口國，每年價值超過2萬億美元。

But it is also a leading market for other countries.

但它也是其他國家的主要市場。

China ranks second as an importer of both goods and services.

中國作為商品和服務的進口商排名第二。

China does however do more of the former - exporting - than importing.

然而，中國確實做了更多的前 - 出口 - 而不是進口。

There is a substantial imbalance in its trade with the rest of the world.

與世界其他地區的貿易存在嚴重(大量的)不平衡。

Using a somewhat wider measure, called the current account of the balance of payments, which includes trade, China had a surplus last year of $165bn.

使用一種更廣泛的衡量標準，稱為國際收支經常賬戶，其中包括貿易，去年中國的盈餘(剩餘)為1650億美元。

That is large, but it's not the largest.

這很大，但並不是最大的。

Germany and Japan have bigger surpluses, and President Trump has taken issue with them as well.

德國和日本有更大的盈餘，川普總統也對他們提出了異議。

President Trump often focuses on these international commercial imbalances, seeing them as a sign that trade agreements signed by his predecessors are unfair, and that other countries are taking advantage of the US.

特朗普總統經常關注這些國際商業失衡，認為這是他的前任(總統)(前輩)簽署的貿易協定不公平，這是一個其他國家正在拿取美國好處的一個標誌。

China's surplus has in fact declined to well below half what it was in 2008.

事實上，中國的順差已經遠遠(下降)，低於2008年的一半。

If you focus on the surplus as a percentage of national income or GDP the decline is even more marked - from just below 10% in 2008 to 1.4% in 2017.

如果你把重點放在國民收入或國內生產總值的百分比上，那麼下降的幅度就更大了(更明顯；更清楚) - 從2008年的不到10％到2017年的1.4％。

By that measure it is now a rather moderate imbalance.

通過這一措施，現在是一個相當溫和的不平衡。

The US, by contrast, has a trade deficit with the rest of the world, to the tune of $800bn last year for trade in goods.

相比之下，美國與世界其他地區的貿易逆差，去年的貨物貿易額達到了8000億美元。

The largest bilateral deficit was with China at $375bn.

最大的雙邊赤字是中國，為3750億美元。

These imbalances are significantly smaller if you include trade in services (such as finance, business services and travel) where the US is the world's biggest exporter, though President Trump has a tendency to overlook that.

如果你包括美國是世界上最大的出口國的服務貿易（如金融，商業服務和旅遊），這些失衡會明顯減少，儘管川普總統傾向於忽略這一點。

He tends to focus specifically on trade on goods.

他傾向於專注於商品貿易。

It's a matter of debate how much these imbalances matter, and whether they are the result of countries' trade policies.

討論這些不平衡有多重要，以及它們是否是各國貿易政策的結果，(這是一個問題)是一個爭論的問題。

Most economists would tell you that a country's overall trade balance is the result of savings and investment by business and households, and government tax and spending policies; that it is not determined by trade policies.

大多數經濟學家會告訴你，一個國家的整體貿易平衡是企業和家庭的儲蓄和投資以及政府稅收和支出政策的結果; 它不是由貿易政策決定的。

A country that spends more than it produces will have a trade deficit, such as the US.

一個花費超過其產量的國家將有貿易逆差，例如美國。

One that earns more than it spends will have a surplus.

收入超過支出的人將有盈餘。

China, with very high levels of household savings, is one example.

中國家庭儲蓄水平很高，就是一個例子。

That does not mean that government policies aren't a factor.

這並不意味著政府政策不是一個因素。

Tax and spending policies, interest rates, exchange rate policies, and labour market policies can all affect savings and investment and the trade balance.

稅收和支出政策，利率，匯率政策和勞動力市場政策都會影響儲蓄和投資以及貿易平衡。

But it is not, most economists would say, driven fundamentally by trade policies.

但大多數經濟學家認為，並非由貿易政策從根本上推動。

It must be said that this is counterintuitive, and it is not a view shared by President Trump.

必須說這是違反直覺的(有悖常理的)，並不是川普總統的觀點(共識)。

He tends to see the imbalance as the result of China's trade and other policies including subsidies, currency manipulation and the acquisition of others countries' technology.

他傾向於認為這種不平衡是中國貿易和其他政策的結果，包括補貼(津貼)，操縱匯率和收購其他國家的技術。

His administration was particularly critical of the "Made in China 2025" initiative, under which Beijing wants to strengthen the country's position in a number of key advanced sectors of industry, including pharmaceutical products, aircraft and robotics.

他的政府特別批評“中國製造2025”倡議，根據該倡議，北京希望加強該國在許多重要先進工業領域(行業)的地位，包括醫藥產品，飛機和機器人。

The Office of the US Trade Representative has described it as part of a plan of "seizing economic dominance of certain advanced technology sectors".

美國貿易代表辦公室將其描述為“抓住(seize v.抓住)某些先進技術部門的經濟主導地位(dominance優越；霸主地位)”計劃的一部分。

What is beyond dispute is China's giant economic presence.

無可爭議的是中國巨大的經濟存在。

There was a key moment in China's rise early in the present century, when it joined the World Trade Organization.

在本世紀初加入世界貿易組織時，中國崛起的關鍵時刻。

That mean that China's access to overseas markets - such as the levels of tariffs it faced - was protected by the WTO's rule book.

這意味著中國進入海外市場 - 例如它所面臨的關稅水平 - 受到WTO規則書的保護。

President Trump believes that was a mistake, that there was a missed opportunity to force China to open its own markets.

特朗普總統認為這是一個錯誤，錯失了迫使中國開放自己市場的機會。

A 2017 report to Congress from the US Trade Representative wrote: "It seems clear that the United States erred in supporting China's entry into the WTO on terms that have proven to be ineffective in securing China's embrace of an open, market-oriented trade regime".

美國貿易代表向國會(congress)提交的一份2017年報告中寫道：“美國有條件(條款)支持中國加入世界貿易組織很明顯是個錯誤(err v.犯錯)，這些條款已被證明無法確保中國接受開放以市場為導向的貿易體制”。